This essay will seek to identify the main trends
within the methods used for the recording of Official National Crime Statistics,
their main differences, the advantages and disadvantages of each method as well
as assess their validity, representativeness and reliability.
According to the Official Crime Survey for England
and Wales crime was showing a rising trend between the years of 1981 and 1995,
particularly acquisitive crime. This is thought to have been a consequence of
the economic downturn and rising unemployment at the time. Since the economic
downturn of 2008 however, incidents of vandalism, acquisitive crimes such as
burglary and car thefts are continuing to fall. This could be because of people’s
perception towards graffiti being a form of art instead of vandalism,
technological advancements such as better car security systems, the implementation
of CCTV, burglar alarms and improved forensic method. Police crackdowns on
these particular types of crimes, changes to probability and severity of
punishment of a particular type of crime could also affect the statistics. The
amount of violent crime has fluctuated in the last four years accounting for
22% of all crimes in 2011/2012, with no statistically significant changes
year-on-year (ons.gov.uk).
Overall, according to the Crime Survey for England
and Wales acquisitive crime this year is low, however latest figures are
showing increases in certain offences. ‘Other household theft’ has increased by
33% since the 2007/2008 survey, 50% of these include thefts from outside of a
dwelling, items such as garden furniture and other opportunist crimes. Latest
figures show that overall; crime has fallen over 50% in the last decade from
19.1 million to 9.5 million and levelled out in the last 3 years. Latest figures
from the year ending June 2012 show an overall decrease of 6% of all crime
against adults compared to the previous year however, it is too early to tell
whether this is evidence of an emerging downward trend as figures have
fluctuated over the last 3 years (Ibid).
The Official Police Reported Crime statistics show
an overall reduction of 4% in the amount of offences committed between the
years of 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 falling from 4.2 million to 4 million, however
the subcategory ‘theft from a person’ showed a 6% increase, this could be on
the increase because of more desirable personal entertainment devices such as
iPhones, mobile phones in general and mp3 players. Police also recorded 2.7
million incidents of anti-social behaviour in 2011/2012 and although these
figures are now compiled using different underlying classifications, show a consistent
decline from the period of 2008/2009 (Ibid).
Violent crime is down by 7%, this category includes
robbery, wounding, assault without injury and assault with minor injury, which
has continued a downward trend since 2006/2007 with yearly reductions of 4% to
8%. Decreases in the number of hospital admissions for violent assaults in the
12 months ending September 2011 have also been shown in a survey of hospital
accident and emergency departments in England and Wales (Ibid).
Provisional data shows a 14% decrease in homicides
from the years surveyed 2010/2011 and 2011/2012, and a 7% overall reduction in
violent crime. The number of attempted murders also fell 8% and police reported
9% fewer offences of grievous bodily harm. Offences involving a firearm have
fallen 16% consistent with a downward trend from 2005/2006 and offences that
involved a knife or sharp instrument has decreased 5% between the years of
2010/2011 to 2011/2012 which all could be attributed to police crack downs on
specific crimes, media coverage, changes in legislation such as gun licensing
laws and an increase in severity of punishment for knife and gun crime as well
as violent crime. Final figures from the homicide index will be published in
January 2013, will include further police investigations and court proceedings,
complicating matters and not giving a full picture for a further 7 months
(Ibid).
The number of robberies recorded by the police in
2011/2012 fell by 2% in comparison to the previous term, which follows a
downward trend in regards to the past decade with the exception of the years
between 2005/2007. London alone counts for 53% of the 75,000 robbery offences
recorded by the police, and 21% of all police recorded crime. While statistics
show robbery up 8% in London within the last year, other police force areas
have seen a significant decrease, which has driven the overall reduction of 2% in
England and Wales, the statistics on the average alone and are not representative
of crime by police force area.
One of the more noted rises in the years between
2009/20012 is in the recorded category ‘other theft or unauthorised taking’
which is up 12% in that period. A large proportion of the statistics is known
to be thefts of scrap metal and cable which could be linked to increases in
commodity prices, this category also includes theft of unattended property or
household property and also against commercial and other organisations (Ibid).
Prior to 1998, the Official Police Recorded Crime statistics only covered the more serious indictable offences triable at the Crown Court, these account for 5% of all crimes tried in court. Changes in the counting rules included some summary offences and the number of victims rather than crimes committed creating a 118% spike in ‘violence against the person’ crimes. This could have been a more accurate indication of the amount of these particular crimes being committed as some criminals are never caught (Ibid).
Further changes to counting rules in 2002 meant that a police officer must record a crime if they believed one had occurred, again this is subjective to the officer in question, dependant on which particular crimes are being cracked down upon at that time. Police and crime experts have revealed that officers sometimes ‘cook the books’ in a process called ‘cuffing,’ selectively arresting or releasing criminals and it has become increasingly common, resulting in misleading figures that could make the police look like crime is falling. These changes in the counting method have made it impossible to make long term comparisons however; the new counting method should produce more reliable results, although the one crime per victim rule could mean some offences are not counted (Coneyworth) (Ibid).
The Crime Survey for England and Wales is a
face-to-face victimisation survey in which a sample of citizens are selected at
random from the Royal Mail’s list of addresses and invited to participate,
estimates are then made in relation to the population as a whole. Of the 67,000
invited to take part in the 2011/2012 survey, only three quarters of them did so
as it is not compulsory, residents may not be home when the interviewer calls
or may not wish to take part for personal reasons. The participants are asked
about their experiences of crime within the 12 months previous to the interview
as well as their attitudes towards certain crime related issues, the police,
the judicial system, their perceptions of crime and anti-social behaviour in
their area. All of these could be influenced by media attention on specific
these areas, as perception is subjective to the individual consciousness.
The Crime Survey for England and Wales is supposed
to offer a large representative demographic of the population and can be used
to consistently measure trends and patterns of specific types of crime, however
less than 1% of households in England and Wales are surveyed and due to the
random selection process and its confidential nature, analysts cannot be sure
who has been selected, so cannot definitively say the survey is representative.
It covers crimes not reported to the police included in the Official Police
Reported Crimes statistics and is not affected by changes in police recording
practice, which is another advantage, however the survey is subject to errors
on behalf of the respondents recalling past events and information.
Participants may feel embarrassed about answering questions about particular
crimes, the interviewers’ comments may influence the interviewee and it also
excludes crimes against commercial organisations, and those not residing in households
such as residents of institutions and homeless people who may have an increased
chance of being victims of crime due to their circumstances. Respondents are
only allowed to record the six most serious crimes that have affected them in
that year, meaning some crimes could go unrecorded. The survey does not include
victimless crimes such as money laundering, tax evasion and fraud some of which
are a large part and cause of the current economic crisis, it could be that the
British public are all victims as the ordinary British taxpayer has to foot the
bill in higher taxes and inflation, as well as bail out banks (Ibid).
The Official National Statistics themselves present
an obvious estimated discrepancy of
about 5 million crimes going unreported each year, the dark figure. Many people
feel it is pointless reporting some crimes to the police as it serves no
purpose, the perpetrator may never be traced. Police are sometimes reluctant to
record a crime and try persuading people otherwise to save them time. The
counting method does not account for crimes that go to trial and are over
turned or acquitted. This equates to 60% of indictable offences tried at the
Crown Court (Ibid) (cps.go.uk).
Both sets of
statistics show that even despite cuts to the police force and the most recent
economic downturn, crime in general is steadily falling and has been for the
last decade however, the questions of validity, representativeness and
reliability are raised when the Crime Survey for England and Wales only
surveys 1% of households at random then estimates for the rest of the
population, and ONS methods are far from full proof as addressed. The data collection method is not guaranteed to be accurate as it
is subject to human error. Official Police Recorded Crime statistics may paint
a more accurate picture of crime, however not all crimes are not recorded, they are
subject to changes in the counting method, police bias towards certain crimes, changes
in legislation and particular crackdowns on specific crimes at that time will
affect certain crime levels and both are open to manipulation. Both sets of
statistics as a result of media representation and political abuse are now
accepted by the general public as facts when the Crime Survey for England and Wales
is a rough estimate and the Official Police Recorded Crime statistics
do not represent an accurate figure of crimes being committed because all
crimes are not included.
References
Crown
Prosecution Service: The Court Case
http://www.cps.gov.uk/victims_witnesses/going_to_court/court_case.html
[22-11-12]
Lisa
Conneyworth: Class hand-outs, Hull
college, unpublished [22-11-12]
Office
for National Statistics: Crime in England
and Wales year ending June 2012
[22-11-12]
Office
for National Statistics: Trends in crime:
a short story 2011/2012 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/crime-statistics/period-ending-march-2012/trends-in-crime--a-short-story.htm-
[22-11-12]
Office
for National Statistics: User guide to
crime statistics for England and Wales
[22-11-12]
Bibliography
Haralambos
and Holborn: Sociology, Themes and
Perspectives 4th edition, London, Collins Educational. 1995
Lisa
Conneyworth: Class hand-outs,
November 2012
Word count
1726
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